Planning for the Inevitable: How Alameda County is Using Fire Pathways to Protect Communities
How do fast-moving wildfires reach our communities? And how can we better prepare?
That’s the focus of a new Fire Pathway Analysis presented to Alameda County, powered by XyloPlan’s innovative approach to wildfire risk modeling.
Unlike traditional models that focus on fire intensity or burn probability, XyloPlan’s analysis predicts how wind-driven wildfires will travel across the landscape and enter communities. This method provides actionable data to inform fuel treatments, defensible space efforts, and emergency response planning.
The Alameda County analysis, funded through the California Fire Safe Council’s County Coordinator Grant Program (2022 CAL FIRE Wildfire County Coordinator-Northern Grant Award), is a vital step toward smarter fire mitigation. The project equips local governments, fire departments, and Fire Safe Councils with the insights needed to prioritize high-impact projects and strengthen community wildfire resilience.
What makes this model different?
XyloPlan’s approach is built on the concept of relative fire speed, evaluating where fire is likely to move faster than firefighting resources can respond. The analysis simulates:
- Fire Pathways: the routes fire is most likely to travel across terrain and fuels under wind-driven conditions
- Community Entry Points: locations where fast-moving fire is most likely to transition into the built environment
- Ember Threat Zones: areas likely to be impacted by high concentrations of windborne embers ahead of the flame front
- Conflagration Blocks: clusters of structures close enough to carry fire from house to house
These outputs provide a clear prioritization framework for community-scale mitigation, highlighting exactly where investments in defensible space, home hardening, and fuel treatments will do the most to reduce structure loss.
Watch the full presentation
Retired Fire Chief Dave Winnacker, XyloPlan co-founder and longtime California fire service leader, walks through the methodology and key insights from the Alameda County project.
In this recorded briefing, XyloPlan Co-Founder and retired Fire Chief Dave Winnacker explains how Alameda County is using fire spread modeling to prioritize mitigation and protect the built environment..
As Chief Winnacker notes, “It’s not a question of if, but when. The goal is to prepare communities so that when wildfire comes, it does not result in devastating structure loss.”
We’re proud to support Alameda County’s leadership in advancing data-driven, community-focused wildfire mitigation. This work represents a practical blueprint for other jurisdictions across California and beyond.
The Path Forward
The Alameda County project is a clear example of how science-based modeling can turn wildfire risk into a practical plan of action. By identifying where fire is most likely to enter, and where the greatest consequences lie, communities can focus limited resources where they’ll have the greatest impact.
XyloPlan’s Fire Pathways model gives local governments, fire agencies, and Fire Safe Councils the clarity needed to:
- Target mitigation efforts at high-consequence entry points
- Support defensible space and home hardening where it matters most
- Justify and strengthen grant applications with detailed scenario data
- Reduce the scale and severity of future fires before they start
Ready to move from awareness to action?
Get in touch to learn how XyloPlan can support your wildfire mitigation goals with fast, actionable insights built for real-world decisions.
About XyloPlan
XyloPlan is a wildfire analytics platform that unites fire agencies, developers, and insurers around clear, science-backed strategies to reduce risk and sustain insurability. Our scenario-based tools simulate how fire spreads in the wildlands and into the built environment, so fire agencies can deploy effective mitigation plans and insurers can underwrite with confidence. The result is smarter planning, safer neighborhoods, and improved access to insurance in fire-prone regions.
To learn more or request a wildfire risk assessment, contact info@xyloplan.com.