More Fire Than Firefighters: Putting Pre-Fire Intelligence in the Incident Commander's Hands

This post recaps a joint webinar and live demonstration with Tablet Command. Watch the full recording for the complete walkthrough and Q&A.

The information an incident commander needs is not always where they need it. It may sit behind a separate login, on a different screen or, for agencies that have been doing this work for a long time, in a binder in the back of an engine.

Information that cannot be accessed during an incident cannot help shape the response.

That was the starting point for a recent webinar with XyloPlan and Tablet Command. XyloPlan co-founder Dave Winnacker and Tablet Command co-founder and CEO Will Pigeon demonstrated what becomes possible when pre-fire risk intelligence and real-time incident information can be viewed on the same screen.

Using a simulated wind-driven fire moving toward a community, they explored a fundamental operational challenge: when there is more fire than firefighters, where can limited resources make the greatest difference?

A narrow problem, on purpose

The scenario was not intended to represent every wildfire.

It focused on a specific and disproportionately destructive type of incident: a fast-moving, wind-driven fire threatening a community during the early stages of response. For this discussion, XyloPlan focused on what are described as fast fires.

These are not campaign fires burning in remote terrain on day 20. They are fires that escape initial containment, align with wind, terrain and fuel, and begin threatening homes within hours.

XyloPlan's Fire Pathways™ modeling identifies where that alignment is likely to carry fire across the landscape, where fire may transition from vegetation into structures and where those transitions could have the greatest consequences.

As fire reaches a community, homes at the edge may be exposed directly to burning vegetation while homes farther downwind face wind-blown embers. When those embers find vulnerabilities, they can ignite structures that generate additional embers and carry fire deeper into the community.

Fire researcher Jack Cohen described the underlying dynamic as the WUI Disaster Sequence: structural ignitions begin occurring faster than the firefighting response can address them.

Dave put the operational question more simply:

Are there going to be more fires than firefighters at the critical point in time?

An engine positioned in the driveway of an exposed home can dramatically change that home's outcome. But no agency has an engine for every driveway. Incident commanders have to decide where limited resources can have the greatest effect.

Making the triage call

The webinar demonstration put attendees in that position.

A simulated fire was approaching a community at five different points. Attendees had enough resources to engage at only three. They made their selections using information an incident commander would typically have available: weather, observed fire behavior, fuels and the resources likely to respond.

Most chose the area where the fire threatened the largest number of homes. It was a reasonable decision and, as the demonstration later confirmed, the right first priority.

Dave then introduced another layer of information: parcel-level inspection data from Fireside showing which properties had been prepared for wildfire and which still had vulnerabilities.

The additional information did not replace the fire behavior picture. It added context about what could happen if the fire reached each neighborhood.

One area was largely prepared for wildfire exposure and could potentially be supported with a smaller number of units conducting ember watch. Another contained a mix of prepared and vulnerable homes within the ember deposition zone. If a vulnerable structure ignited, its proximity to neighboring homes could put even prepared properties at risk.

Most consequentially, one mixed neighborhood sat immediately upwind of a much larger area of dense housing. If fire became established there, it could create the continuity needed to carry structural fire much farther into the community.

The fire behavior showed where the fire was going. The parcel-level intelligence helped show what could happen when it got there.

Use what you already know

Without pre-fire intelligence, an incident commander may need to send engines or strike teams into threatened neighborhoods simply to determine what is defensible.

Every unit conducting reconnaissance is a unit not actively engaging the fire. And that reconnaissance is necessarily incomplete. Crews driving through a neighborhood cannot see every backyard or side yard, inspect vent mesh or determine whether combustible materials sit beneath the eaves.

In many communities, much of that work has already been done through agency inspections, resident self-inspections and mitigation programs.

The problem is that information collected during mitigation season is rarely available to the incident commander at the time and place it matters.

Bringing it into the operational view allows commanders to use what the community already knows rather than spending scarce resources trying to recreate that picture during an incident.

Why it has to be on the same screen

Tablet Command brings CAD information, unit locations, staffing, mapping, drone video and other operational data into a shared, real-time view.

The demonstration showed how Fire Pathways™ modeling and parcel-level mitigation data can become part of that same operational picture. The incident commander does not have to switch tools, manage another login or wait for someone else to relay the information.

There is an important distinction between pre-fire intelligence and real-time observations. Fire Pathways™ is modeled in advance, using severe historical conditions, to show how fire may reach a community and where vegetation-to-structure transitions are most likely. It is not a substitute for live observations from crews, cameras, aircraft and other sources, which remain essential during an active incident.

Inspection and mitigation data add another layer, showing how conditions on the ground have changed. That intelligence can be prepared in advance and made available when it becomes operationally useful.

More time buys more options

The value of mitigation is not limited to whether an individual home ignites.

Work completed across a community can slow the transition from vegetation to structures and reduce the rate at which new structural ignitions occur.

That buys time.

Depending on the community and the incident, another 30, 60, 90 or 120 minutes can mean more resources on scene, stronger command and control, and a better chance of staying ahead of the rate of ignition.

With more time, units can hold the community edge, work the flanks, contain structures that do ignite and patrol downwind areas for ember-caused ignitions.

Instead of every available resource reacting to multiple emergencies at once, the response has more options.

That is the operational outcome community risk reduction should be working toward.

Move beyond counting activities

Acres treated, dollars spent, Firewise neighborhoods formed, meetings held and chipping days completed all represent real work.

But they are measures of activity. The more important question is what that work changed.

Agencies should be able to ask:

• How has mitigation changed the community's risk?
• Where is fire most likely to transition into structures?
• Which homes or neighborhoods could spread fire to others?
• How much additional time could mitigation give the firefighting response?
• What residual risk remains?
• Can the incident commander see the results of that work during an incident?

Answering those questions moves community risk reduction from counting activities toward measuring outcomes.

Have a plan, then connect it to the response

If your agency is investing in community risk reduction or wildfire adaptation, have a plan.

Understand how fire is likely to reach the community, where mitigation can produce the greatest benefit and what measurable outcome the work is intended to achieve.

Then make sure the work does not stop at the plan.

Connect the intelligence developed before the fire to the tools crews already use during the response. Inspection results, mitigation progress and modeled risk should not remain isolated in separate systems once an incident begins.

Much of the work has already been done. The opportunity is to make sure that intelligence reaches the incident commander when it matters most.

Watch the full webinar and demonstration to see the scenario unfold step by step, including the Q&A on fire modeling, ember spread, parcel-level inspection data and how the underlying information is updated.

Contact XyloPlan to learn how Fire Pathways™ can help connect community wildfire planning, mitigation and operational decision-making.